Fixed or variable? Why this decision feels different right now
There’s a lot going on behind the scenes right now that’s quietly impacting mortgage rates.
Global uncertainty is back in the headlines. Oil prices are up. Inflation risks are creeping in again. Bond markets are jumpy. And we’re in the middle of one of the biggest mortgage renewal waves we’ve seen, with over a million mortgages renewing in 2026.
So if your mortgage is coming up, this isn’t just a routine renewal.
It’s a moment to pause and actually look at the bigger picture.
And naturally, the question comes up… fixed or variable?
What’s changed
Fixed rates have moved up, while prime has held.
That means variable rate mortgages are now sitting noticeably lower than fixed. In some cases, close to half a percent lower.
That’s why variable is very much back in the conversation.
Lower doesn’t always mean better
Variable can look great on paper right now.
Lower rate. Lower payment. More flexibility. But it comes with movement.
And while rates have come down, what happens next is far less predictable than it was even a few months ago. Inflation, global events, economic data… all of it plays a role.
So the real question isn’t just “what’s the rate today”?
It’s “how would I feel if things change"?
How I like to break it down
Instead of overcomplicating it, I look at it like this:
Fixed
Why this decision is a bit trickier right now
Fixed rates are driven by the bond market. Variable rates follow prime, led by the Bank of Canada.
And right now, those two aren’t moving in sync.
They can move in different directions, for different reasons.
So there isn’t a clear “this is the better option” answer right now.
And honestly, there rarely is.
What actually matters most
This decision isn’t about guessing where rates are going.
It’s about you.
Your comfort level. Your plans. Your cash flow.
Would a higher payment stress you out?
Are you planning to move or refinance in the next few years?
Do you value certainty or flexibility more right now?
That’s where the right answer lives.
Bottom line
Your renewal isn’t just a box to check.
It’s a chance to reset your strategy and make sure your mortgage still fits your life today and where you’re headed.
And if you’d like help with that, you know where to find me.